Do not turn uncertainty into certainty too early
The first task is not to answer the problem. It is to organize what is not yet known.
Complex situations usually arrive with several plausible explanations. The most persuasive explanation can quietly become a conclusion before anyone has checked it. I keep five different kinds of knowing separate so language cannot outrun reality.
- 01
Observation
What happened, where, when, and through whose work it can be traced.
- 02
Evidence
What supports, weakens, or contradicts an explanation.
- 03
Hypothesis
A plausible cause that is worth testing, not a root cause declared too early.
- 04
Interpretation
The meaning drawn from evidence, with rationale and confidence made visible.
- 05
Recommendation
The next decision that the available confidence can actually justify.